The full report below is published in English, the language of the original sources and analysis.
Greece’s olive oil harvest for the 2026/27 season is expected to deliver a significant recovery in production, with Crete and the Peloponnese emerging as the two key regions to watch. Early industry forecasts place Greek olive oil production at 280,000–300,000 tonnes, up from approximately 232,000 tonnes in the 2025/26 season.
The outlook is encouraging for producers, exporters and international buyers seeking Greek extra virgin olive oil. However, the forecast remains provisional, while production costs, unsold stocks and uncertainty over producer prices continue to shape the market.
According to estimates compiled by Wikifarmer from industry forecasts published by Mercacei, Crete and the Peloponnese could each produce around 100,000 tonnes of olive oil this season. If confirmed, the national crop would represent Greece’s strongest harvest since 2022/23.
Greek Olive Oil Production Forecast for 2026/27
The initial production outlook points to a stronger season across Greece’s principal olive-growing regions.
| Indicator | Preliminary estimate |
|---|---|
| Greek olive oil production, 2026/27 | 280,000–300,000 tonnes |
| Greek production, 2025/26 | Approximately 232,000 tonnes |
| Crete | Around 100,000 tonnes |
| Peloponnese | Around 100,000 tonnes |
| Potential year-on-year increase | Approximately 21–29% |
Figures are preliminary industry estimates, not final official production results. Regional estimates may be revised as harvesting progresses.
The projected recovery follows a weaker previous season and comes amid expectations of improved output in several Mediterranean producing countries. The final Greek figure will depend on actual olive yields, oil extraction rates, weather conditions and crop health over the coming months.
Crete: Olive Oil Production Could Approach 100,000 Tonnes
Crete is expected to be one of the main drivers of Greece’s olive oil production recovery.
According to reporting by Neakriti on 14 October, the island could produce approximately 100,000 tonnes of olive oil, compared with 57,000 tonnes in the previous season, based on figures collected from local mills by regional agricultural authorities.
Such a recovery would represent a substantial improvement for Cretan producers after a difficult period for the sector. Earlier reporting has also pointed to more favourable rainfall and growing conditions as factors supporting the outlook.
Nevertheless, the picture is not uniformly positive. Local industry representatives have raised concerns about fruit drop in several areas of the island, while harvesting costs and labour availability remain significant challenges. Although serious olive fly infestations had not been widely reported at the time of the latest coverage, final production volumes and oil quality will depend on conditions throughout the remainder of the harvest.
Price levels are another major concern. Local industry sources cited by Neakriti placed the latest known prices at approximately €3.60–€4.00 per kilogram, with producers hoping that prices for the new crop will improve.
For Crete, therefore, the central question is not simply how much olive oil the island will produce, but whether the expected recovery can translate into sustainable returns for growers and the wider supply chain.
Peloponnese: Messenia and Laconia in Focus
The Peloponnese is also expected to contribute approximately 100,000 tonnes to Greece’s 2026/27 olive oil crop, according to the regional breakdown reported by Wikifarmer.
Messenia remains one of the most important areas to monitor. Early estimates suggest that production in the region could exceed 60,000 tonnes, with the Trifylia area alone potentially reaching around 28,000 tonnes. These are preliminary forecasts rather than confirmed harvest results.
The region’s performance will be particularly important for the supply of Koroneiki extra virgin olive oil and products associated with recognised regional origins, including PDO Kalamata.
Laconia is another key producing area, with harvesting and early-season trading expected to contribute to the market picture as the campaign develops. Across the Peloponnese, actual yields, oil extraction rates and the pace of harvesting will determine how closely final production matches current expectations.
For international buyers, the region’s output matters not only in terms of volume but also in the availability of differentiated Greek oils for retail, foodservice and private-label programmes.
Olive Oil Prices: A Larger Harvest Does Not Guarantee Higher Producer Returns
Despite the more optimistic production outlook, Greece’s olive oil market faces a difficult commercial environment.
A larger crop could improve availability for exporters and buyers, but it will also enter a market where unsold oil from the previous season remains an issue. Industry estimates reported by Wikifarmer put carryover stocks at at least 40,000 tonnes.
At the same time, producers continue to face high costs for harvesting, labour, fertilisers, irrigation and energy. These expenses can leave growers under pressure even when production volumes improve.
International supply will also influence the market. A stronger harvest in Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer, could increase competition and affect demand for Greek oil.
The balance between supply, demand, quality and production costs will therefore be critical in determining prices during the 2026/27 campaign. Higher output should not automatically be interpreted as higher profitability for Greek producers.
What the 2026/27 Harvest Means for Olive Oil Buyers
For importers, distributors, retailers and foodservice operators, the early outlook points to potentially improved availability of Greek olive oil. However, procurement decisions should be based on confirmed volumes and product specifications rather than national forecasts alone.
Buyers should pay particular attention to:
- Origin and traceability: Confirm the producing region, harvest year and documentation for each lot.
- Quality specifications: Assess acidity, peroxide value, sensory characteristics and other relevant laboratory results.
- Harvest timing: Early-harvest oils and oils produced later in the season can have different flavour profiles, extraction yields and commercial positioning.
- Supply commitments: Confirm actual availability and delivery schedules with suppliers as the harvest progresses.
theGreex’s Greek Olive Oil Harvest Calendar provides further information on regional harvesting windows, early-harvest oils and purchasing considerations. Buyers seeking a broader overview of sourcing, grades and regional origins can also consult the theGreex guide to sourcing Greek olive oil.
Outlook: A Promising Crop, with the Market Still to Be Tested
Greece enters the 2026/27 olive oil season with stronger production prospects, led by Crete and the Peloponnese. A national harvest of 280,000–300,000 tonnes would mark a substantial recovery from the previous season and improve the potential availability of Greek oil for international markets.
The final result, however, remains dependent on conditions through the remainder of the harvest. At the same time, high production costs, carryover stocks and competition from other Mediterranean origins will determine whether the additional supply can be absorbed at commercially sustainable prices.
For producers and buyers alike, the coming weeks will be crucial. Actual crop volumes, the quality of new-season oils and the evolution of market demand will provide a clearer picture of Greece’s position in the international olive oil market.
Editorial note: Production estimates reflect information available as of 15 October 2026. Regional and national forecasts are preliminary and may change as harvesting progresses.