Olive Oil Prices 2026/27: Spain’s Big Harvest, Greece’s Shrinking Share and What Buyers Should Do Now

The short answer

If you buy olive oil for retail, foodservice or private label, the 2026/27 season is shaping up as a buyer-friendly market with a quality caveat. Spain has a large crop and soft prices. Greece produces less oil than it used to, but its best regions remain the reference for high-quality extra virgin. Below we explain what is happening, why it matters and how we suggest planning your purchases.

We will keep updating this page as official figures and mill prices move. Our aim is simple: give you clear, sourced information so you can decide with confidence.

Key facts at a glance

• Spain 2026/27 crop: official estimate of about 1.6 million tonnes (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, as reported by olivenews.gr).
• Spanish prices: fresh extra virgin olive oil quoted around €3.40/kg at origin at the end of October 2026 (olivenews.gr price observatory, 30 October 2026).
• Policy response: Spain is preparing a private storage withdrawal of up to 310,000 tonnes under Article 167a of EU Regulation 1308/2013.
• Greece long term: average Greek production fell from about 400,300 tonnes a year (1995–2005) to about 265,400 tonnes in the latest decade, and Greece’s share of world output dropped from 15.6% to 8.5% (Eleftheria Kalamatas, via Gargalianoi Online, using IOC, European Commission, ELSTAT and FAO data).
• Messinia matters: the region produces roughly 18.3% of Greek olive oil, about one kilo in every five (ELSTAT, 2015–2024).

Spain: a large harvest and a market under pressure

Spain sets the tone for world olive oil prices. With an official estimate of around 1.6 million tonnes for 2026/27 and origin prices sliding to about €3.40/kg, Spanish producers are under real margin pressure.

To support them, Spain is preparing to activate private storage aid. In plain terms, a quantity of oil, up to 310,000 tonnes, is taken off the market for a period and kept in controlled tanks, with a small monthly payment to the storer. The goal is to tighten supply temporarily and steady producer prices.

Our reading is measured. The withdrawal itself looks very likely, but its real effect on prices is uncertain. olivenews.gr notes that the measure relies on expectations about future demand and supply, and stored oil eventually returns to the market. History suggests such schemes slow price falls rather than reverse them.

Greece: smaller volumes, steady importance

The long-term numbers are sobering. Across three decades, recorded Greek production declined by about a third, while Spain grew by 34% and world output by 21.2%. In the most recent decade, Greece and Italy together produced around 570,000 tonnes a year, less than half of Spain’s 1.269 million tonnes.

Two points deserve fairness. First, older figures date from a subsidy era in which EU audits found reporting weaknesses, so part of the decline may be statistical rather than real. Second, smaller volume does not mean smaller value. Greek regions such as Messinia, home of the Koroneiki variety and Kalamata PDO, continue to supply oils that buyers choose for taste, low acidity and traceability.

For buyers, this means Greek oil is less of a volume commodity and more of a quality and origin choice. The best lots are limited and are usually committed early.

Is there government intervention on prices?

• Spain / EU: yes, through the planned private storage withdrawal described above. It is an EU market tool, applied by Spain.
• Greece: we have not seen a comparable Greek price-support measure announced for 2026/27 in the sources reviewed. We will update this report if one is published.
• Elsewhere: governments are acting on the sector in other ways, for example interest-free loans for Italian olive mills reported by olivenews.gr.

There are no consumer price caps on olive oil in these markets. Prices are set by supply, demand and quality.

What this means for prices

• Standard EU blends and Spanish bulk: likely to stay soft in the coming months. The withdrawal may put a floor under prices but is unlikely to push them sharply higher.
• Greek extra virgin, especially Messinia and Crete: expected to hold a premium over Spanish oil. A cheaper Spanish market can narrow the gap, but it rarely closes it for top lots.
• Risk factors: final harvest yields, weather during the season, the actual volume withdrawn and demand recovery after the high prices of recent years.

Our advice: is now a good time to buy?

For most buyers, yes, with a plan.

1. Lock in core volume now. Current price levels are among the most favourable of recent seasons. Securing part of your annual need early reduces risk.
2. Stage the rest. Buy in two or three steps through the season rather than all at once. This protects you if prices dip further and keeps you supplied if they recover.
3. Reserve quality early. If your brand depends on Greek extra virgin, confirm allocations with mills before the best early-harvest lots are committed.
4. Buy on analysis, not on price alone. Ask for acidity, peroxide value, K-values and sensory results for each lot. A cheap oil that fails a retailer audit is never a bargain.

How theGreex helps

We work directly with Greek producers and mills, so you see real lot data and real origin prices without extra intermediary layers. Our export team follows the harvest every week and will keep this page updated, so you always have a trusted, plain-language view of the market.

If you would like current indicative prices or a sample plan for the season, contact our team. We are happy to talk it through.

Figures are taken from the sources listed below and may be revised. This report is market information, not a price offer.